Category: Geopolitics / Analysis
Tensions around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait trace back to an escalation between Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia that began on July 13, 2026.
According to Al Jazeera, the trigger was an Iranian aircraft carrying a Houthi delegation — returning from the funeral of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — that landed in Houthi-controlled Sanaa.
Forces loyal to Yemen’s Saudi-backed government struck Sanaa airport’s runway to prevent the plane from taking off again, prompting the Houthis to retaliate with missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport.
The Houthis have since warned that shipping and airlines could face consequences until the “blockade” on Sanaa airport is lifted.
According to Reuters, citing unnamed sources, Iran’s leadership has discussed asking the Houthis to escalate further by targeting shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The same sources say missiles and drones have been deployed near the waterway, though it remains unconfirmed whether any order to attack has been given.
The strait connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and, ultimately, the Indian Ocean, making it a critical link between Asia and Europe.
Ships travelling from Asia pass through Bab el-Mandeb before entering the Suez Canal en route to Europe, and vessels coming from Europe use the same route in the opposite direction.
If Houthi actions were to disrupt shipping through Bab el-Mandeb — alongside the ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz — vessels could be forced to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, significantly increasing transit time and freight costs.
Combined with disruptions in Hormuz, this could push up oil and gas prices globally, with knock-on effects on the cost of everyday goods — a scenario that would be felt acutely in energy-dependent regions like South Asia.